WN: Housing starts to drop this fall and next year in Calgary
For the next two years, transactions are expected to increase by 3.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent. At the same time, the number of listings is rising but not as quickly. leading to a more balanced market, L'Heureux said.
Price gains will be lower in the next two years from the 2015 increase of 7.2 per cent to $437,700, CMHC said.
But the condo market is running out of steam, the Crown corporation reports, with housing starts to drop significantly in 2015 - 25 per cent in the condo market this year - before picking up slightly in 2016 and 2017.
"Less choice in the resale market will lead to greater growth in the average MLS(R) price and higher housing starts next year".
The Canadian housing market has been a key concern for economists as household debt has risen to record levels in relation to income.
However, CMHC noted in its report that it expects interest rates to gradually rise from current levels starting late next year.
CMHC forecasts prices will continue to rise in BC as a seller's market continues.
For 2015, it said housing starts are expected to range between 162,000 and 212,000 units, with a "point" forecast of 186,900 units.
In the Montreal CMA, Centris(R) sales will rise by 3.5 per cent in 2016 to 38,800 units and by 1.8 per cent in 2017 to 39,500 units. "In 2017, multi-family construction is forecast to increase to 6,100 units as economic conditions improve", said the CMHC report. The average MLShome price is forecast to increase, ranging between $594,600 and $668,000 in 2016, compared to a projected $624,000 in 2015. The average price in 2017 is expected to be in a range between $424,000 and $475,000.
The updated outlook is up from May when the point forecast was for $422,129 this year and $428,325 in 2016.
Condo construction helps introduce stability into housing markets in these cities, by providing a more affordable option and alleviating the lack of land supply, Tal says.