Global demand for OPEC's crude will be lower in 2020 than next year as supply from rivals proves more resilient than expected, potentially fuelling a debate on the merits of its strategy to let prices fall to hurt other producers. Brent crude futures touched an 11-year low of $36.04 a barrel on December 21. Thus, the total oil production in Russian Federation in OPEC baseline scenario will remain at the level of 10.6 mln barrels per day in the medium term up to 2020, and by 2025 will reach 10.7 mln barrelsper day, continuing growth in 2040 to around 10.8 mln barrels per day. Oil prices will take decades to recover and will still not reach the peak seen in recent years, according to the latest World Oil Outlook (WOO) from OPEC. The drop has helped to boost oil's medium-term use, although OPEC said the demand stimulus of low crude prices will fade over time. Global liquids supply is projected to increase by 5.2 million barrels per day in the mid-term, rising from the level of 92.4 million barrels per day recorded in 2014 to 97.6 million barrels per day projected for 2020. Demand in Eurasia is expected to increase by 0.3 million barrels per day, totaling 5.5 million barrels per day by the end of the medium-term. OPEC said it stopped modeling work on the report in mid-year, since when it has updated its forecast of 2016 non-OPEC supply to a decline. "The removal of subsidies and price controls on petroleum products in some countries and ongoing efficiency improvements will all likely continue restricting oil demand growth". "Despite this market instability, OPEC has continued to be an efficient, reliable and economic supplier of oil", El-Badri noted in the foreword of report. Last year's estimates were 4.50 million bpd by 2020 and 4 million bpd by 2040. The OPEC report said oil supply from the USA and Canada would reach 19.8 million barrels a day by 2020, an increase of 2.5 million barrels a day over 2014. Oil-related investments required to cover future demand for oil over the period 2015-2040 is estimated at nearly $10 trillion. Producers outside OPEC will need to do the bulk of the spending, investing $250 billion a year. OPEC's basket of crude oils is assumed in the report at $55 in 2015 and to rise by $5 a year to reach $80 by 2020. The Cartel believes that growing demand and slower than previously expected non-OPEC supply growth will eliminate the existing oversupply and lead to a more balanced market, which, in turn, will provide support to oil prices. The price of the ORB in real terms is assumed to rise from more than $70 a barrel in 2020 to $95 a barrel in 2040.
