AG: Soybeans, Grains Prices Little Changed as Investors Await Reports
Corn and soybean futures were little changed overnight ahead of a number of reports scheduled to be released today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Along with the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the USDA is expected to release its quarterly grain stocks, monthly crop production, and winter wheat seedings reports.
While the reports are expected to show a lot of corn, soybeans, and wheat in the world, investors aren’t willing to sell heavily as money managers are extremely short the market, or have a lot of bets that prices will decline.
A bearish report, however unlikely, could mean that speculative investors begin buying back their contracts, and that could push up prices. With investors unwilling to buy because of large inventories globally and unwilling to sell because money managers have such a large net-short position, trading is fairly quiet this morning.
Corn futures for March delivery were unchanged at $3.51 Âľ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Soybean futures for March delivery rose Âľ cent to $8.52 a bushel in overnight trading on the CBOT. Soymeal for March delivery added 60 cents to $270.50 per short ton. Soyoil lost 0.03 cent to 29.22 cents a pound.
Wheat futures in Chicago were unchanged at $4.69 a bushel, and Kansas City wheat futures added ½ cent to $4.62 ¾ a bushel.
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Big Day Looms as USDA Set to Release Several Reports
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to release several reports that can push and pull prices today, though it’s not a huge secret what we’ll likely see.
At noon in Washington, the USDA is set to issue its January WASDE, quarterly grain stockpiles, monthly crop production, and winter wheat seedings reports.
As expected, stockpiles of corn and soybeans as of Dec. 1 in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower of both commodities, likely was at a record high, according to industry estimates.
Corn production is seen by Farm Futures at 13.57 billion bushels on yields of 169.1 bushels per acre. Inventories of the grain are expected to be reported at 1.642 billion bushels.
Soybeans output is projected by Farm Futures at 3.986 billion bushels with yields of 48.2 bushels an acre, with stockpiles at 492 million bushels.
Winter wheat seedings are expected to be little changed from 2015 at 39.5 million acres, according to estimates from the company. Of that, hard-red winter wheat acreage is seen down 5% to 27.6 million, while soft-red winter seedings are expected to jump 20% to 8.54 million. White wheat area is projected by Farm Futures at 3.34 million acres, down 2% from last year.
Despite the number of reports, it seems a lot of the estimates for record inventories have been baked into prices, and judging by today’s overnight price action, investors are sitting on their hands until noon in Washington.
As we know, however, it’s all about expectations. Deviate too far from those and we could see fireworks in trading today.
Discuss the upcoming reports in Marketing Talk.
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Wind Chills May Fall as Low as Minus-35 in Minnesota, Wisconsin
It’s likely that if you’re in Minnesota or Wisconsin, and you’re outside, then you’re definitely cold.
A hazardous weather outlook has been issued for parts of both states where temperatures have dropped to dangerous levels.
Wind chill readings are forecast to fall as low as minus-35°F. today, according to the National Weather Service. Arctic air is expected to return this weekend, which also could produce dangerous windchills.
Flooding is an ongoing issue in the Mississippi, Ohio, and Arkansas river valleys, according to the NWS. That’s expected to last for at least another week.
As much as 2 inches of snow is expected in parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan today, the NWS said. That could help any soft-red winter wheat crops that don’t already have a protective blanket of snow.
