BLBG: Bond Yields Slide as Brexit Stresses Grow; U.S. Stocks Pare Drop
Sterling slides to lowest since 1985 as Japanese yen jumps
S&P 500 pares loss as services sectors grow more than forecast
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Bond yields tumbled to record lows, the pound sank to its weakest in 31 years and global equities faltered amid growing speculation the U.K.’s secession may roil markets outside Europe. U.S. stocks pared losses after data bolstered confidence in the American economy.
Demand for haven assets sent bond yields sinking, while the yen climbed to its strongest level since the day after British referendum. Sterling touched its lowest level in more than three decades. Gold jumped to a two-year high, boosting shares of companies that mine precious metals. A gauge of global stocks lost ground for a second day, while U.S. equities pared losses amid data showing the service industries grew at the fastest pace in seven months.
“Everyone is trying to react to a situation we’ve never been in before,” said Stewart Richardson, chief investment officer at RMG Wealth Management in London. “We’ve had shocks to the system before, but we haven’t had one like this. And we won’t know the answers for a long time.”
After rallying last week on bets central banks will work to limit the fallout from Brexit, global equities are retreating again as the knock-on effects become evident. Three asset managers froze withdrawals from U.K. real-estate funds on Tuesday following a flurry of redemptions and the Bank of England relaxed capital requirements for lenders. Societe Generale SA Chairman Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said a banking crisis in Italy, stoked by the vote, could spread to the rest of Europe and rules limiting state aid to lenders should be reconsidered.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes, the global benchmark for sovereign bonds, fell as much as six basis points to 1.318 percent and was at 1.366 percent at 9:32 a.m. in New York. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Australia, Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. also sank to records. The strength of the gains in government bonds is leaving investors to ponder how severe the fallout from Brexit is going to be.
“It’s starting to feel like 2008,” said John Anderson, a money manager at Smith & Williamson Investment Management in London. “Government bond yields are telling you something very nasty is about to happen. These property fund suspensions are a worry. I am risk-off at the moment, erring on the side of believing the govvies,” he said, referring to government debt.
Bonds
Securities in the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index, with an average life of about 10 years, yield a record-low 0.40 percent. In Germany, the 10-year bund yield fell to minus 0.188 percent, while yields on similar-maturity French and British securities reached 0.118 percent and 0.724 percent, respectively.
The Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of its June 14-15 policy meeting on Wednesday and a gauge of U.S. services output is also due, before key payrolls data is released on Friday.
Declining prospects of a Fed rate hike have spurred a torrent of demand for Treasuries, with almost $10 trillion of securities in the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index yielding less than zero, up from about $9 trillion a week ago. In addition to experimenting with negative rates, some monetary authorities outside the U.S. are buying government debt, reducing the supply for investors who count on fixed-income assets.
“In the risk-off environment produced by international events, there is a global rush to buy super-long sovereign debt, and bonds that still offer some yield are going to be most in demand,” said Hideo Suzuki, the chief manager of foreign exchange and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp. in Tokyo.
Borrowing costs for U.K. companies have fallen to a record on investor speculation the Bank of England will boost stimulus to cushion the impact of Brexit. The average yield on sterling-denominated investment-grade bonds has fallen to 2.77 percent and the relative cost of borrowing in pounds instead of euros narrowed to the least in 10 months, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.
Sweden’s central bank pushed a potential tightening deeper into next year and signaled negative interest rates will last for two more years in response to Brexit-fueled fear about economic turmoil.
The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 0.9 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 1.7 percent, falling for a third day, with all its industry groups declining. Telecom companies and insurers were the biggest losers, while Tullow Oil Plc sank 15 percent after announcing a $300 million sale of convertible bonds. The Stoxx 600 trades at around 14 times estimated earnings, near its lowest valuation since 2012 relative to the global index.
Deutsche Bank AG led losses in a gauge of European lenders as BlackRock Inc. cut the region’s shares to underweight, with a negative view on the euro area’s banking sector, amid the Brexit fallout. The Italian market regulator banned short selling on Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena for Wednesday’s session, prompting a rally of 8.6 percent -- after it slumped 31 percent in the past two days.
Miners of precious metals Randgold Resources Ltd. and Fresnillo Plc climbed more than 3.6 percent as gold and silver gained. Those, in addition to the weak pound, helped support the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index, which slipped 1.6 percent.
The S&P 500 Index lost 0.3 percent, while the MSCI Emerging Market Index dropped 1.4 percent, falling for a second day. Shares in South Korea slid 1.9 percent and Taiwan’s benchmark slid 1.6 percent, while stock indexes in South Africa and Poland both fell at least 1.1 percent. Many markets across Asia and the Middle East were closed for religious holidays.
Currencies
The pound sank to a fresh 31-year low of $1.2798 before climbing back toward $1.30.
The yen jumped 1.1 percent to 100.65 per dollar, taking its advance since Britain’s referendum to more than 5 percent.
“The yen is taking the brunt of the pound selling,” said Takuya Kawabata, an analyst at Gaitame.com in Tokyo. “It’s a risk-off market triggered by the pound. We need to continue to remain wary of risk aversion prompted by the U.K.”
The currencies of New Zealand, Russia and South Africa -- commodity-exporting nations -- all dropped by at least 0.5 percent. South Korea’s won led declines in Asia, sinking 0.9 percent versus the greenback.
The yuan dropped as much as 0.2 percent to a five-year low of 6.6980 per dollar after ABN Amro Bank NV, Credit Agricole CIB and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut forecasts for the currency on Tuesday. An index tracking the yuan versus 13 peers fell for eight of the nine days since Britain’s referendum, spurring speculation China is seeking to weaken it amid the risk of a slowdown in the EU.
Commodities
Precious metals surged as investors piled into haven assets. Gold advanced as much as 1.4 percent to $1,375.28 an ounce in London, the highest level since March 2014. Silver gained as much as 2.9 percent.
Most industrial metals declined, with copper falling 2 percent to $4,720.50 a metric ton and lead dropping 1.7 percent. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 1.1 percent in London to $46.10 a barrel after closing Tuesday at a one-week low.