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BLBG: Spanish Bonds Climb Before ECB as Oil Rallies on Stockpile Data
 
Yuan borrowing costs jump offshore on suspected intervention
Aussie, krone lead gains in currencies of commodity producers
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Spanish 10-year bonds rose, sending yields to a record low, on speculation Mario Draghi will show a bias for extending the European Central Bank’s stimulus measures. Stocks were little changed and the euro strengthened as policy makers met in Frankfurt, while oil climbed on signs a U.S. glut is easing.
Gains in bonds spread to Ireland, where the government sold 10-year securities at all-time low yields. European shares and U.S. equity index futures were little changed. Crude rose above $46 a barrel, spurring gains in currencies of commodity-producing countries. Yuan borrowing costs surged to the highest since February amid speculation China is taking steps to deter bets on depreciation.
The ECB may help revive markets following a slump in volatility as traders focus on potential tweaks to quantitative easing and economists predict Draghi will prolong bond buying even if policy makers don’t cut rates. In the U.S., investors will be looking at data on jobless claims after prospects for an interest-rate increase in September faded amid data showing slowdowns in hiring and business activity.
“Rather than waiting for concrete measures from Draghi, this time we’re all looking for any signals regarding what more could be done if needed,” said Alan Higgins, chief investment officer at Coutts & Co. in London. “That means whether the ECB could extend the period of QE, any word about buying more government bonds in the periphery and whether they can include bank bonds in the program. It’s all about clues today.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained less than 0.1 percent as of 7:02 a.m. in New York. Futures on S&P 500 also added less than 0.1 percent, after the U.S. measure barely moved in the last session. The benchmark has held in a band of 1.5 percent for 39 days, the narrowest ever for that length of time. A 50-day volatility measure for the MSCI All Country World Index of shares has more than halved since the start of this month.
Italian banks gained, with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA rising 2.9 percent after Il Messaggero reported that its planned capital increase could be postponed until next year. Micro Focus International Plc soared 20 percent after Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. said it’s spinning off and merging some non-core software assets in a deal with the U.K. company valued at about $8.8 billion.
Rocket Internet SE declined 5 percent after the German startup incubator slashed the value of one of its key portfolio companies by more than 50 percent in a new financing round. ASML Holding NV lost 2 percent as terms of a transaction obtained by Bloomberg News showed that Samsung Electronics Co. is selling about half of its stake in the chip-equipment supplier.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.4 percent after Chinese trade data showed export declines moderated in dollar terms last month and imports unexpectedly grew. Daily moves in the Shanghai gauge have been less than 1 percent for 17 days in a row, a phenomenon that last occurred in 2001.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3 percent, nearing a two-week low. Australia’s dollar led gains among 16 major currencies with a 0.7 percent advance and the Taiwan dollar was the worst performer with a 0.3 percent loss. The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.1274.
The Philippine peso sank to a four-week low after foreigners pulled $153 million from the nation’s stocks since the end of August, on track for the heaviest monthly net sales since November.
China’s yuan weakened less than 0.1 percent in the onshore market, declining for the first time this week, and was little changed in offshore trading.
Bonds
The overnight rate for yuan loans between banks in Hong Kong jumped 3.88 percentage points to 5.45 percent, a daily fixing showed. The equivalent rate in Shanghai increased by one basis point to 2.10 percent.
The People’s Bank of China may have tightened liquidity in the offshore market, as it did in January, to make it prohibitively expensive for foreign speculators to short the yuan in the wake of a Group of 20 summit that ended Monday, according to Mizuho Bank Ltd.
“The authorities may be repeating January’s trick -- tighten the liquidity and crack down on bearish speculation on the yuan,” said Ken Cheung, a foreign-exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong. “Everyone was talking about depreciation after the G20 meeting, and China could be reacting to that.”
The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds dropped two basis points to 0.91 percent, having fallen to a record 0.909 percent earlier. Benchmark German 10-year bund yields were little changed at minus 0.11 percent. They dropped seven basis points in the previous two sessions and fell to minus 0.127 percent on Wednesday, the lowest since July 12.
Ireland auctioned 10-year bonds at a record-low yield, as investors brushed off the controversy over Apple Inc.’s tax arrangements in the country. The nation’s debt office sold 1 billion euros of 2026 bonds at a yield of 0.33 percent on Thursday in Dublin, as the European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing program continued to drive down financing costs.
A gauge of Treasury-market volatility hovered around the lowest levels seen in more than 18 months as the chances of an interest-rate increase by Federal Reserve officials at September’s meeting receded.
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which measures price swings in U.S. debt, held close to the lowest level since December 2014, reached Aug. 10.Futures pricing indicated a 22 percent chance of tighter policy this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down from 32 percent after the Labor Department’s weaker-than-forecast employment report on Sept. 2.
Commodities
Oil advanced as weekly industry data showed U.S. crude inventories declined, trimming supplies that are at the highest seasonal level in at least 30 years.
West Texas Intermediate gained 2 percent to $46.38 a barrel and Brent added 1.6 percent to $48.73. Crude stockpiles fell by 12.1 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report. A Bloomberg survey predicts government inventory data due to be published later Thursday to show an increase of 905,000 barrels.
Gold held near a three-week high as weaker U.S. economic data reduced prospects for an interest rate increase this month by the Federal Reserve. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,348.07 an ounce, while silver added 0.6 percent and platinum gained 0.5 percent.
Industrial metals declined, led by a 0.8 percent drop in zinc to $2,303 a metric ton. Copper was little changed at $4,651 a ton, erasing earlier gains as China cut imports for a fifth month to the lowest level in a year amid slowing demand and rising production.
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